The probability of death by strange things like zombies and concerns us all (or a least a lot of nerds). The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention catalogs the many ways in which Americans die in its curiously named “Wonder” database (https://wonder.cdc.gov). However, its list is based on historical deaths, so while it does include tire explosions, bathtubs, plant thorns, marine animals, vibrations, and inhalation of gastric contents, it does not include other conceivable causes of death such as zombies, ghosts, witches, demons, goblins, centaurs, and mermaids.
This presentation applies subjectivist (“Bayesian”) probability theory in the context of zero-fail data in order to assess the probability that you will be killed by zombies, ghosts, witches, demons, goblins, centaurs, mermaids, tire explosions, bathtubs, plant thorns, marine animals, vibrations, and/or inhalation of gastric contents. Despite theoretical arguments against the existence of zombies, ghosts, witches, demons, goblins, centaurs, and mermaids, the presentation argues that there is a nonzero probability that they will kill you, your family, and all your friends, but not the obnoxious guy who kept hitting on you in the Dollar Tree greeting card aisle.